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Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.